Megatrend Analysis

Tips for Using the Megatrends

• Avoid “all or nothing” thinking. Megatrends tend to make people think about inevitable and all-encompassing changes. In reality, the developments are rarely black and white. Urbanisation does not mean that everyone will live in cities, or that cities will remain unchanged. Automation does not mean that robots will take over all jobs, or that new jobs will not be created. It is advisable to challenge trends with countertrends and examine the tensions between them. This helps us see the shades of grey within them.
• Challenge assumptions and be open to different opinions. We often have preconceived notions about future directions of development. These notions tend to reflect our interpretations of the consequences of the megatrends. Nevertheless, we should challenge our preconceived notions and consider alternative interpretations. What factors do we expect to remain unchanged? When the population grows older, will life in old age remain the same as it is now? Does a rise in the standard of living inevitably lead to higher consumption? One good way to challenge one’s own assumptions is to discuss the megatrends with others and be open to different views.
• Complement the megatrends with weak signals. The megatrends paint a picture of changes that are happening now. However, in the post-normal age, we should also focus on discontinuities and surprises. Weak signals of emerging phenomena or the early symptoms of change help us consider less expected directions of future development.
• Examine the trends at the individual level. Megatrends help guide our thinking about changes at the global level. This may make it feel impossible to respond to them. How can we ever achieve the necessary major changes in society and our lives as quickly as they are needed? When we are faced with this kind of anxiety about the future, we should keep in mind that major changes have been achieved in the past, and changes are happening all the time. We just do not always notice the changes when they occur gradually. For added perspective, we should think about how the megatrends and the changes they necessitate are manifested in our daily lives.
• Don’t forget hope. In light of the megatrends, the future may appear threatening. Climate change, the ageing of the population and geopolitical power struggles may feel like insurmountable challenges and the future may appear lost. There are various threats out there. At the present time, it is important that we outline desirable futures. The tensions and uncertainties around the megatrends illustrate factors that we can influence.