Planning Fallacy

What is Planning Fallacy?

The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency for people to underestimate the time, cost, and effort required to complete a task or project. This bias can lead to unrealistic expectations and overoptimism about the feasibility of completing a task, which can result in missed deadlines, cost overruns, and other problems.

The planning fallacy is often caused by a number of factors, including:

  • Anchoring bias, which is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information that is encountered
  • Optimism bias, which is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes lack of knowledge or experience, which can lead to unrealistic expectations about the complexity or difficulty of a task

The planning fallacy can have serious consequences for individuals and organizations, as it can lead to unrealistic expectations and poor decision-making. To help mitigate the effects of the planning fallacy, it is important to carefully consider all available information and to seek input from others who may have more knowledge or experience with the task at hand.

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